Would an independent Scotland keep the pound?

//Would an independent Scotland keep the pound?

Would an independent Scotland keep the pound?

By | 2017-09-02T18:54:24+00:00 December 12th, 2013|Blog|2 Comments
Scottish pounds - for much longer?

Scottish pounds – for much longer?

Alex Salmond used to be a strong advocate of joining the euro.  Back in the days when many people thought it was a good idea, Mr Salmond was one of the foremost proponents of the idea.  It was an economically advantageous move that would cement Scotland’s place in the politics of Europe.  How times have changed.

The fall of Lehman brothers in 2008 and the explosion of the UK financial services industry put paid to his vision of an Irish-Icelandic-Scottish “arc of prosperity”.  And the ensuing crisis in the eurozone made adoption of the euro rather less popular.  So now that the independence of Scotland is to be decided by a referendum in September next year, the previously likely position of wanting to join the euro is no longer on the agenda.

In that case, what will Scotland do for a currency? 

A new independent Scottish currency is ruled out, given the impediments that would cause to cross-border business transactions, as is creating such a currency and pegging it to sterling. 

Instead, the white paper published by the Scottish government, Scotland’s Future, proposes a currency union between Scotland and the rest of the UK (rUK) based on sterling.  The Bank of England would, under this model, set interest rates according to the needs of the sterling area (and not just of rUK) and would be accountable to both governments in doing so.

This poses two questions.  First, would the rUK accept no longer being an independent country?  Allowing its central bank to be accountable to a foreign government could be taken as a diminution of national sovereignty, as would allowing its monetary policy to be set according to the needs of a foreign economy.  A nation state vision of monetary policy was one of the reasons why the UK refused to join the euro 15 years ago, back in the days when Alex Salmond was in favour, and it does not seem obvious to me that a referendum in Scotland will be allowed to change this position when a referendum in the UK as a whole was not.

For all the arguments in the white paper that it is in the economic interest of the rUK to agree to such a proposal, these are also arguments that it is in the economic interest of Scotland not to leave.  The crucial point is that the decision is not about economics.

The second question is about the fiscal coordination that would be required to make such a currency union work.  The white paper observes that:

a monetary framework will require a fiscal sustainability agreement between Scotland and the rest of the UK, which will apply to both governments and cover overall net borrowing and debt.

Again, why should the rUK agree to be part of such a fiscal agreement?  After all, there is political consensus that it was right to stay out of the EU’s fiscal compact treaty.  Can Alex Salmond do something that Angela Merkel could not?

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2 Comments

  1. Peter Sain ley Berry 31/12/2013 at 15:20 - Reply

    I know everyone talks about the ‘Rest of the United Kingdom’ – but this is surely a tautological nonsense for the Kingdom will by definition no longer be united if (as I very much hope it won’t) Scotland votes for independence. The correct term for England, Wales and Northern Ireland must therefore be the ‘Rest of the Kingdom’ or ROK, which I believe also stands for the Republic of Korea. Alternatively we could call ourselves, South Britain as Scotland used to be known as North Britain. But not, please, rest of the UNITED Kingdom.

    Agree with what you say about the currency and Happy New Year – Peter

  2. Alastair McGowan 04/02/2014 at 18:46 - Reply

    Scotland wants out of the union, but to stay in with the pound. rUK can push for its own terms on such a union, that if reduced to Scotland’s bargaining position would likely push towards terms similar to Scotland having its own currency.

    There is also the scenario that rUK government would put such a monetary union to a referendum of its own, again the outcome if purely economic being one that is balanced in rUK favour not Scotland’s?

    Scotland wants to keep the monarchy? Does the monarchy want Scotland?

    What does the Welsh assembly think of it… a referendum in Wales over rUK acceptance of terms for Scotland leaving but keeping the pound? I wonder if NI would like to join Scotland in a Northern Union?

    I find the whole situation fascinating for political thought experiments alone.

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